Greater Cairo Earthquake Loss Assessment and its Implications on the Egyptian Economy
Author(s)
Dorra, Elkhayam Medhat
Type
Thesis
Abstract
This study develops a loss estimation model for assessing the seismic economic
implications resulting from damage to Greater Cairo’s building stock, as well as
natural gas and electricity lifelines. The model estimates both the direct and indirect
economic losses resulting from seismic occurrences.
The developed model is composed of three modules. The first of which is the ground
shaking module which estimates ground-motion throughout Greater Cairo. This is
done through investigating the seismicity of Egypt and its surroundings, in order to
develop recurrence relationships. Furthermore, through the use of geological and
geotechnical data, seismic geological classification is conducted. This investigation
is used along with three attenuation relationships to estimate ground-motion
throughout Greater Cairo.
The second module evaluates the damage to the building stock as well as natural gas
and electricity lifelines. This is done through developing a building inventory
database, and classifying structures in this database according to various classes.
Moreover, data regarding components in the natural gas and electricity networks is
collected, and through the use of minimum cut sets the networks’ behaviour is
assessed. Finally, through the use of fragility curves the vulnerability of structures
and components is evaluated.
The final module estimates the direct economic losses associated with repairing
damaged components. Furthermore, the indirect costs associated with business
interruption resulting from disruption to elements in the built environment are also
estimated. This study will pave the way for developing countries to recognize the impacts of
earthquakes on their economies. Moreover, it will be useful for countries that exhibit
a centralized economy that is dependant on major cities. Furthermore it provides a
step forward in earthquake loss estimation to model multiple lifelines, rather than
past research which modelled each lifeline separately.
implications resulting from damage to Greater Cairo’s building stock, as well as
natural gas and electricity lifelines. The model estimates both the direct and indirect
economic losses resulting from seismic occurrences.
The developed model is composed of three modules. The first of which is the ground
shaking module which estimates ground-motion throughout Greater Cairo. This is
done through investigating the seismicity of Egypt and its surroundings, in order to
develop recurrence relationships. Furthermore, through the use of geological and
geotechnical data, seismic geological classification is conducted. This investigation
is used along with three attenuation relationships to estimate ground-motion
throughout Greater Cairo.
The second module evaluates the damage to the building stock as well as natural gas
and electricity lifelines. This is done through developing a building inventory
database, and classifying structures in this database according to various classes.
Moreover, data regarding components in the natural gas and electricity networks is
collected, and through the use of minimum cut sets the networks’ behaviour is
assessed. Finally, through the use of fragility curves the vulnerability of structures
and components is evaluated.
The final module estimates the direct economic losses associated with repairing
damaged components. Furthermore, the indirect costs associated with business
interruption resulting from disruption to elements in the built environment are also
estimated. This study will pave the way for developing countries to recognize the impacts of
earthquakes on their economies. Moreover, it will be useful for countries that exhibit
a centralized economy that is dependant on major cities. Furthermore it provides a
step forward in earthquake loss estimation to model multiple lifelines, rather than
past research which modelled each lifeline separately.
Date Issued
2011
Date Awarded
2011-12
Copyright Statement
Attribution NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-ND)
Advisor
Stafford, Peter
Elghazouli, Ahmed
Creator
Dorra, Elkhayam Medhat
Publisher Department
Chemical Engineering and Chemical Technology
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)