Uncertainty in on-the-fly epidemic fitting
File(s)danila-nika-wilding-knottenbelt-epew-2014.pdf (746.82 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Danila, Roxana
Nika, Marily
Wilding, Thomas
Knottenbelt, William J
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
The modern world features a plethora of social, technological and biological epidemic phenomena. These epidemics now spread at unprecedented rates thanks to advances in industrialisation, transport and telecommunications. Effective real-time decision making and management of modern epidemic outbreaks depends on the two factors: the ability to determine epidemic parameters as the epidemic unfolds, and the ability to characterise rigorously the uncertainties inherent in these parameters. This paper presents a generic maximum-likelihoodbased methodology for online epidemic fitting of SIR models from a single trace which yields confidence intervals on parameter values. The method is fully automated and avoids the laborious manual efforts traditionally deployed in the modelling of biological epidemics. We present case studies based on both synthetic and real data.
Date Issued
2014-09-11
Date Acceptance
2014-09-01
Citation
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2014, 8721, pp.135-148
ISBN
9783319108841
ISSN
0302-9743
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Start Page
135
End Page
148
Journal / Book Title
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Volume
8721
Copyright Statement
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10885-8_10
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10885-8_10
Source
EPEW 2014
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2014-09-11
Finish Date
2014-09-12
Coverage Spatial
Florence, Italy