Using parametric classification trees for model selection with applications to financial risk management
File(s)2016_7 EJOR Adcock Meade.pdf (1.62 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Adcock, CJ
Meade, N
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We describe two parametric classification tree methods, which allow formal selection of a member of a
class of generalised distributions. In the paper we consider generalised Beta distributions for non-negative
random variables and the generalised skew-Student distribution for random variables distributed on the
real line. We introduce a class of symmetric generalised multivariate Student distributions, members
of which may also be selected using the classification trees. We present two versions of the parametric
classification tree: specific to general and general to specific. We apply the classification methods to
daily returns on stocks from a selection of 15 major, mid-cap and emerging markets. The results show
that the majority of return distributions follow Student’s t, but that a non-negligible minority follow a
symmetric generalised Student distribution. We confirm a well-known stylised fact about skewness: it
tends not to be persistent. By contrast, kurtosis is persistent. Using the symmetric generalised multivariate
Student distribution, we present a risk management study based on efficient portfolios constructed
from UKFTSE250 stocks and specifically concerned with the computation of value at risk. The case study
demonstrates that the model selection procedures based on the classification trees lead to more accurate
computation of VaR than those based on the normal distribution or on non-parametric approaches. The
study also shows that the normal distribution may be used for VaR computations for larger portfolios
when the holding period is longer.
class of generalised distributions. In the paper we consider generalised Beta distributions for non-negative
random variables and the generalised skew-Student distribution for random variables distributed on the
real line. We introduce a class of symmetric generalised multivariate Student distributions, members
of which may also be selected using the classification trees. We present two versions of the parametric
classification tree: specific to general and general to specific. We apply the classification methods to
daily returns on stocks from a selection of 15 major, mid-cap and emerging markets. The results show
that the majority of return distributions follow Student’s t, but that a non-negligible minority follow a
symmetric generalised Student distribution. We confirm a well-known stylised fact about skewness: it
tends not to be persistent. By contrast, kurtosis is persistent. Using the symmetric generalised multivariate
Student distribution, we present a risk management study based on efficient portfolios constructed
from UKFTSE250 stocks and specifically concerned with the computation of value at risk. The case study
demonstrates that the model selection procedures based on the classification trees lead to more accurate
computation of VaR than those based on the normal distribution or on non-parametric approaches. The
study also shows that the normal distribution may be used for VaR computations for larger portfolios
when the holding period is longer.
Date Issued
2016-11-09
Date Acceptance
2016-10-27
Citation
European Journal of Operational Research, 2016, 259 (2), pp.746-765
ISSN
0377-2217
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
746
End Page
765
Journal / Book Title
European Journal of Operational Research
Volume
259
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000393932800028&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
Finance
Classification
Persistence
Risk-management
Skew-student
GENERALIZED-T DISTRIBUTION
WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION
ASSET RETURNS
PORTFOLIO SELECTION
BETA-DISTRIBUTION
STUDENT-T
DISTRIBUTIONS
PRICES
REGRESSION
SKEWNESS
Operations Research
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published