Signaling, instrumentation, and CFO decision-making
File(s)Signaling_JFE_final.pdf (467.44 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Hennessy, Christopher
Chemla, Gilles
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Building parable economies embedding econometricians, we view alternative estimators (IV, fuzzy RD, natural experiments, OLS, event studies) from the perspective of privately-informed decision-makers, e.g., CFOs. IV estimates can be misleading since randomization through observable instruments eliminates signal content arising from discretion. If the goal is informing discretionary decisions, rather than predicting out-comes after forced/mistaken actions, instrumentation is problematic, whereas OLS or event studies can be sufficient. The analysis shows the utility of alternative estimators hinges upon oft-neglected assumptions about agent/econometrician information sets, as distinct from exclusion restrictions. We recommend parable economy estimation as precursor to real-world IV estimation.
Date Issued
2022-06-01
Date Acceptance
2021-05-26
Citation
Journal of Financial Economics, 2022, 144 (3), pp.849-863
ISSN
0304-405X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
849
End Page
863
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Economics
Volume
144
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Causality
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-08-31