Estimating the health benefits and cost-savings of a cap on the size of single serve sugar-sweetened beverages
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake is associated with tooth decay, obesity and diabetes. We aimed to model the health and cost impact of reducing the serving size of all single serve SSB to a maximum of 250 ml in New Zealand.
A 250 ml serving size cap was modeled for all instances of single serves (<600 ml) of sugar-sweetened carbonated soft drinks, fruit drinks, carbonated energy drinks, and sports drinks in the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey intake data (2008/09). A multi-state life-table model used the change in energy intake and therefore BMI to predict the resulting health gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs over the remaining life course of the New Zealand population alive in 2011 (N = 4.4 million, 3% discounting).
The ‘base case’ model (no compensation for reduced energy intake) resulted in an average reduction in SSB and energy intake of 23 ml and 44 kJ (11 kcal) per day or 0.22 kg of weight modeled over two years. The total health gain and cost-savings were 82,100 QALYs (95% UI: 65100 to 101,000) and NZ$1.65 billion [b] (95% UI: 1.19 b to 2.24 b, (US$1.10 b)) over the lifespan of the cohort. QALY gains increased to 116,000 when the SSB definition was widened to include fruit juices and sweetened milks. A cap on single serve SSB could be an effective part of a suite of obesity prevention and sugar reduction interventions in high income countries.
A 250 ml serving size cap was modeled for all instances of single serves (<600 ml) of sugar-sweetened carbonated soft drinks, fruit drinks, carbonated energy drinks, and sports drinks in the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey intake data (2008/09). A multi-state life-table model used the change in energy intake and therefore BMI to predict the resulting health gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs over the remaining life course of the New Zealand population alive in 2011 (N = 4.4 million, 3% discounting).
The ‘base case’ model (no compensation for reduced energy intake) resulted in an average reduction in SSB and energy intake of 23 ml and 44 kJ (11 kcal) per day or 0.22 kg of weight modeled over two years. The total health gain and cost-savings were 82,100 QALYs (95% UI: 65100 to 101,000) and NZ$1.65 billion [b] (95% UI: 1.19 b to 2.24 b, (US$1.10 b)) over the lifespan of the cohort. QALY gains increased to 116,000 when the SSB definition was widened to include fruit juices and sweetened milks. A cap on single serve SSB could be an effective part of a suite of obesity prevention and sugar reduction interventions in high income countries.
Date Issued
2019-03-01
Date Acceptance
2019-01-15
Citation
Preventive Medicine, 2019, 120, pp.150-156
ISSN
0091-7435
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
150
End Page
156
Journal / Book Title
Preventive Medicine
Volume
120
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000457869000020&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
Beverage
Diet, food and nutrition
Public health
Epidemiology
Life tables
Quality-adjusted life-years
Cost-benefit analysis
DRINK CONSUMPTION
PUBLIC-HEALTH
NUTRITION
TAXATION
POLICY
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-01-18