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  4. UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real interest rate
 
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UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real interest rate
File(s)
EP final submission Miles and Monro - 16 December (1).pdf (1011.75 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Miles, David
Monro, Victoria
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
House prices have risen substantially faster than the prices of consumer goods in most G7 countries over the past few decades. This raises major policy issues: such rises affect the distribution of wealth within and between generations, the mobility of labour and financial stability. This paper explores why such rises have happened, and what the policy implications are. The price rises have been greatest in the United Kingdom, where real house prices have risen more than three and a half times since the 1970s, substantially outpacing real income growth. Meanwhile, rental yields have been trending downwards—particularly since the mid-90s. This paper reconciles these observations by analysing the contribution of a number of drivers of house prices. It shows that the rise in house prices relative to incomes between 1985 and 2018 in the United Kingdom can be more than accounted for by the substantial decline in real risk-free interest rates over the period. This is slightly offset by net increases in home-ownership costs from higher rates of tax. Changes in the risk-free real rate are likely to have been a major driver of changes in house prices. We analyse why they have driven house prices up faster in the United Kingdom than in other advanced economies. Our model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index-linked gilt yields from current rates could ultimately result in a fall in real house prices of around 20%.
Date Issued
2021-10-01
Date Acceptance
2020-12-28
Citation
Economic Policy, 2021, 36 (108), pp.627-684
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86427
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiab006
ISSN
1468-0327
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
627
End Page
684
Journal / Book Title
Economic Policy
Volume
36
Issue
108
Copyright Statement
© 2021 CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po. This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Economic Policy following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version (David Miles, Victoria Monro, UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real interest rate, Economic Policy, Volume 36, Issue 108, October 2021, Pages 627–684) is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiab006
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Business & Economics
CONSTRAINTS
Economics
14 Economics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-02-10
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