Emergency preparation and uncertainty persistence
File(s)Draft.pdf (1.07 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Sundaresan, Savitar
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Unusual events trigger persistent spikes in uncertainty. Standard models cannot match these dynamic patterns. This paper presents a unified framework, motivated by the literature on inattention. Agents choose whether and how to prepare for different possible states of the world by collecting information. Agents optimally ignore sufficiently unlikely events, so the
occurrence of such events does not resolve, but rather increases, uncertainty. Uncertain agents have dispersed beliefs, making it harder to focus future preparation. Thus, uncertainty begets uncertainty for an inattentive agent, endogenously persisting. In a financial application, this
framework matches patterns in volatility, volume of trade, belief dispersion, and spreads.
occurrence of such events does not resolve, but rather increases, uncertainty. Uncertain agents have dispersed beliefs, making it harder to focus future preparation. Thus, uncertainty begets uncertainty for an inattentive agent, endogenously persisting. In a financial application, this
framework matches patterns in volatility, volume of trade, belief dispersion, and spreads.
Date Issued
2024-05
Date Acceptance
2022-11-07
Citation
Management Science, 2024, 70 (5), pp.2842-2861
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
2842
End Page
2861
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
70
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2023, INFORMS. All rights reserved.
Identifier
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4836
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-07-07