Convolutional recurrent neural networks for glucose prediction
File(s)1807.03043v5.pdf (1.53 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Li, Kezhi
Daniels, John
Liu, Chengyuan
Herrero-Vinas, Pau
Georgiou, Pantelis
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Control of blood glucose is essential for diabetes management. Current digital therapeutic approaches for subjects with Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) such as the artificial pancreas and insulin bolus calculators leverage machine learning techniques for predicting subcutaneous glucose for improved control. Deep learning has recently been applied in healthcare and medical research to achieve state-of-the-art results in a range of tasks including disease diagnosis, and patient state prediction among others. In this work, we present a deep learning model that is capable of forecasting glucose levels with leading accuracy for simulated patient cases (RMSE = 9.38±0.71 [mg/dL] over a 30-minute horizon, RMSE = 18.87±2.25 [mg/dL] over a 60-minute horizon) and real patient cases (RMSE = 21.07±2.35 [mg/dL] for 30-minute, RMSE = 33.27±4.79\% for 60-minute). In addition, the model provides competitive performance in providing effective prediction horizon ( PHeff) with minimal time lag both in a simulated patient dataset ( PHeff = 29.0±0.7 for 30-min and PHeff = 49.8±2.9 for 60-min) and in a real patient dataset ( PHeff = 19.3±3.1 for 30-min and PHeff = 29.3±9.4 for 60-min). This approach is evaluated on a dataset of 10 simulated cases generated from the UVa/Padova simulator and a clinical dataset of 10 real cases each containing glucose readings, insulin bolus, and meal (carbohydrate) data. Performance of the recurrent convolutional neural network is benchmarked against four algorithms. The proposed algorithm is implemented on an Android mobile phone, with an execution time of 6ms on a phone compared to an execution time of 780ms on a laptop.
Date Issued
2020-02-01
Date Acceptance
2019-04-01
Citation
IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics, 2020, 24 (2), pp.603-613
ISSN
2168-2194
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Start Page
603
End Page
613
Journal / Book Title
IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics
Volume
24
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2019 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30946685
Grant Number
EP/P00993X/1
Subjects
cs.CV
cs.CV
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2019-04-01