Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We propose a Bayesian statistical framework for estimating the reproduction number R early in an epidemic. This method allows for the yet-unrecorded secondary cases if the estimate is obtained before the epidemic has ended. We applied our approach to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic that started in February 2003 in Hong Kong. Temporal patterns of R estimated after 5, 10, and 20 days were similar. Ninety-five percent credible intervals narrowed when more data were available but stabilized after 10 days. Using simulation studies of SARS-like outbreaks, we have shown that the method may be used for early monitoring of the effect of control measures.
Date Issued
2012-02-16
Date Acceptance
2012-02-01
Citation
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2012, 12 (1), pp.110-113
ISSN
1080-6040
Publisher
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Start Page
110
End Page
113
Journal / Book Title
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume
12
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Public Domain. (CC BY.4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000234419700020&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Immunology
Infectious Diseases
IMMUNOLOGY
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME
TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
HONG-KONG
EPIDEMIC
Bayes Theorem
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks
Hong Kong
Humans
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Time Factors
Microbiology
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health And Health Services
1103 Clinical Sciences
Publication Status
Published