House prices and growth with fixed land supply
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Miles, David
Sefton, James
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We analyse housing costs and patterns of residential development over the long term in a dynamic general equilibrium. We show that in a growing economy the speed of travel improvements is crucial to the evolution of land and house prices. We derive a condition for the rate of change in transport efficiency that generates flat land and house prices on a balanced growth path. We present evidence that this condition was satisfied in many countries between the mid-nineteenth century and the mid-twentieth century, but since then passenger transport improvements have slowed down with major implications for how house prices evolve.
Date Issued
2021-05-01
Date Acceptance
2020-07-03
Citation
The Economic Journal, 2021, 131 (636), pp.1815-1848
ISSN
0013-0133
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
1815
End Page
1848
Journal / Book Title
The Economic Journal
Volume
131
Issue
636
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Royal Economic Society. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Economic Society.
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Economic Journal following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version David Miles, James Sefton, House prices and growth with fixed land supply, The Economic Journal, ueaa088 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa088
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Economic Journal following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version David Miles, James Sefton, House prices and growth with fixed land supply, The Economic Journal, ueaa088 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa088
Sponsor
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/doi/10.1093/ej/ueaa088/5870104
Grant Number
ES/P000142/1
Subjects
Economics
14 Economics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-07-11