The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms
File(s)paper v52.pdf (2.04 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Cathcart, Lara
Dufour, Alfonso
Rossi, Ludovico
Varotto, Simone
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We analyse a sample of 6 million firm-year observations of large corporations and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) spanning 6 European countries from 2005 to 2015, to determine the impact of leverage and different sources of funding on default risk. We find that financial leverage has a greater impact on the probability of default of SMEs than of large corporations. The difference in default probability between the top and bottom leverage quartiles is 1.24% for large firms and 2.87% for SMEs. This difference may be explained by the greater exposure of SMEs to short-term debt and their consequently higher refinancing risk. Indeed, we find that SMEs that recover from the state of insolvency may have similar leverage to defaulted SMEs; however their liability structure is significantly altered towards long-term debt and away from short-term debt. Our findings have important implications not only for bank regulators and policy-makers but also for credit risk modelling.
Date Issued
2020-02
Date Acceptance
2019-11-03
Citation
Journal of Corporate Finance, 2020, 60, pp.1-36
ISSN
0929-1199
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
36
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Corporate Finance
Volume
60
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119918305443?via%3Dihub
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Business & Economics
Default risk
Leverage
Small and medium enterprises
Recovery probabilities
TRADE CREDIT
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
FINANCIAL DISTRESS
MARKET POWER
BANK
BANKRUPTCY
PREDICTION
ACCESS
DEBT
RATIOS
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
Finance
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-11-11