Quantifying the cost of leaving the Paris Agreement via the integration of life cycle assessment, energy systems modeling and monetization
Author(s)
Algunaibet, Ibrahim
Pozo Fernandez, Carlos
Galan Martin, Angel
Guillen Gosalbez, Gonzalo
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Current energy systems models focus on cost minimization with a bound on some greenhouse gas emissions. This limited environmental scope can lead to mixes that are not consistent with our sustainable development. To circumvent this limitation, we here make use of the concept of monetization and life cycle assessment to quantify the indirect costs of electricity generation in the design of energy systems. Applying our approach to the United States, we found that the indirect costs of electricity generation could be reduced by as much as 63% by meeting the Paris Agreement. Consequently, the total opportunity cost (i.e., direct and indirect costs) of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and continuing with the current mix would be as high as 1103 ± 206 billion USD2013 in 2030 (i.e., 6% of the United States gross domestic product in 2017). By optimizing the direct and indirect cost of electricity generation concurrently, we found an optimal ecological solution that attains total economic savings compared to the Paris Agreement mix of as much as 373 ± 164 billion USD2013 in 2030. Our work highlights the need to extend the environmental policies that govern energy systems beyond the direct greenhouse emissions to consider other critical environmental criteria.
Date Issued
2019-05-15
Date Acceptance
2019-03-08
Citation
Applied Energy, 2019, 242, pp.588-601
ISSN
0306-2619
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
588
End Page
601
Journal / Book Title
Applied Energy
Volume
242
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Grant Number
NE/P019900/1
Subjects
Consequential life cycle assessment
Energy systems modeling
Externalities
Monetization
Paris Agreement
Sustainability
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-03-19