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  5. The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia
 
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The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia
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The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia.pdf (710.64 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Hangoma, Peter
Bulawayo, Maio
Chewe, Mwimba
Stacey, Nicholas
Downey, Laura
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95% CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46 million (95% CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia.
Date Issued
2020-04-01
Date Acceptance
2020-03-15
Citation
BMJ Global Health, 2020, 5 (4), pp.1-9
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/84267
URL
https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/4/e001968
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001968
ISSN
2059-7908
Publisher
BMJ Publishing Group
Start Page
1
End Page
9
Journal / Book Title
BMJ Global Health
Volume
5
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Sponsor
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000538145000006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
OPP1134345
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
OBESITY
IMPACT
WEIGHT
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e001968
Date Publish Online
2020-04-29
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