Risk oriented earthquake hazard assessment: influence of spatial discretisation and non-ergodic ground-motion models
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Published version
Author(s)
Stafford, Peter
Type
Chapter
Abstract
Three important aspects of ground-motion modelling for regional or portfolio risk analyses are discussed. The first issue is the treatment of discretisation of continuous ground-motion fields for generating spatially correlated discrete fields. Shortcomings of the present approach in which correlation models based upon point estimates of ground motions are used to represent correlations within and between spatial regions are highlighted. It is shown that risk results will be dependent upon the chosen spatial resolution if the effects of discretisation are not adequately treated. Two aspects of non-ergodic groundmotion modelling are then discussed. Correlation models generally used within risk modelling are traditionally based upon very simple partitioning of ground-motion residuals. As regional risk analyses move to non-ergodic applications where systematic site effects are considered, these correlation models (both inter-period and spatial models) need to be revised. The nature of these revisions are shown herein. Finally, evidence for significantly reduced between-event variability within earthquake sequences is presented. The ability to progressively constrain location and sequence-dependent systematic offsets from ergodic models as earthquake sequences develop can have significant implications for aftershock risk assessments.
Editor(s)
Akkar, Sinan
Ilki, Alper
Goksu, Caglar
Erdik, Mustafa
Date Issued
2021-06-03
Citation
Advances in Assessment and Modeling of Earthquake Loss, 2021, pp.169-187
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
169
End Page
187
Journal / Book Title
Advances in Assessment and Modeling of Earthquake Loss
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This book is an open access publication.
Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original
author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were
made.
Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original
author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were
made.
License URL
Identifier
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-68813-4_8
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
8
Date Publish Online
2021-06-03