Modelling the variance risk premium of equity indices: the role of
dependence and contagion
dependence and contagion
File(s)15m1011822.pdf (831.67 KB) VarianceRiskPremiumPaperRevision3.pdf (886.66 KB)
Published version
Accepted version
Author(s)
Granelli, A
Veraart, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The variance risk premium (VRP) refers to the premium demanded for holding assets
whose variance is exposed to stochastic shocks.
This paper identifies a new modelling framework for equity indices and presents for the
first time explicit analytical formulas for their VRP in a multivariate stochastic volatility
setting, which includes multivariate non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and Wishart
processes. Moreover, we propose to incorporate contagion within the equity index via a
multivariate Hawkes process and find that the resulting dynamics of the VRP represent a
convincing alternative to the models studied in the literature up to date. We show that our
new model can explain the key stylised facts of both equity indices and individual assets and
their corresponding VRP, while some popular (multivariate) stochastic volatility models may
fail.
whose variance is exposed to stochastic shocks.
This paper identifies a new modelling framework for equity indices and presents for the
first time explicit analytical formulas for their VRP in a multivariate stochastic volatility
setting, which includes multivariate non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and Wishart
processes. Moreover, we propose to incorporate contagion within the equity index via a
multivariate Hawkes process and find that the resulting dynamics of the VRP represent a
convincing alternative to the models studied in the literature up to date. We show that our
new model can explain the key stylised facts of both equity indices and individual assets and
their corresponding VRP, while some popular (multivariate) stochastic volatility models may
fail.
Date Issued
2016-06-14
Date Acceptance
2016-04-11
Citation
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2016, 7 (1), pp.382-417
ISSN
1945-497X
Publisher
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Start Page
382
End Page
417
Journal / Book Title
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics
Volume
7
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2016, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Grant Number
FP7-PEOPLE-2012-CIG-321707
Subjects
0102 Applied Mathematics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-06-14