How Many HIV Infections May Be Averted by Targeting Primary Infection in Men Who Have Sex With Men? Quantification of Changes in Transmission-Risk Behavior, Using an Individual-Based Model
Author(s)
White, PJ
Fox, J
Weber, J
Fidler, S
Ward, H
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In the United Kingdom, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among men who have sex with men
(MSM) is not under control, despite readily available treatment, highlighting the need to design a cost-effective
combination prevention package. MSM report significantly reduced transmission risk behavior following HIV
diagnosis. To assess the effectiveness of HIV diagnosis in averting transmission during highly infectious primary
HIV infection (PHI), we developed a stochastic individual-based model to calculate the number of HIVtransmission
events expected to occur from a cohort of recently infected MSM with and those without the behavior
changes reported after diagnosis. The model incorporates different types of sex acts, incorporates condom use,
and distinguishes between regular and casual sex partners. The impact on transmission in the 3 months after
infection depends on PHI duration and testing frequency. If PHI lasts for 3 months and testing is performed
monthly, then behavior changes after diagnosis would have reduced estimated transmission events by 49%–52%,
from 31–45 to 15–23 events; a shorter duration of PHI and/or a lower testing frequency reduces the number of
infections averted. Diagnosing HIV during PHI can markedly reduce transmission by changing transmissionrisk
behavior. Because of the high infectivity but short duration of PHI, even short-term behavior change can
significantly reduce transmission. Our quantification of the number of infections averted is an essential component
of assessment of the cost-effectiveness of strategies to increase detection and diagnoses of PHI.
(MSM) is not under control, despite readily available treatment, highlighting the need to design a cost-effective
combination prevention package. MSM report significantly reduced transmission risk behavior following HIV
diagnosis. To assess the effectiveness of HIV diagnosis in averting transmission during highly infectious primary
HIV infection (PHI), we developed a stochastic individual-based model to calculate the number of HIVtransmission
events expected to occur from a cohort of recently infected MSM with and those without the behavior
changes reported after diagnosis. The model incorporates different types of sex acts, incorporates condom use,
and distinguishes between regular and casual sex partners. The impact on transmission in the 3 months after
infection depends on PHI duration and testing frequency. If PHI lasts for 3 months and testing is performed
monthly, then behavior changes after diagnosis would have reduced estimated transmission events by 49%–52%,
from 31–45 to 15–23 events; a shorter duration of PHI and/or a lower testing frequency reduces the number of
infections averted. Diagnosing HIV during PHI can markedly reduce transmission by changing transmissionrisk
behavior. Because of the high infectivity but short duration of PHI, even short-term behavior change can
significantly reduce transmission. Our quantification of the number of infections averted is an essential component
of assessment of the cost-effectiveness of strategies to increase detection and diagnoses of PHI.
Date Issued
2014-12-01
Date Acceptance
2014-12-01
Citation
Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2014, 210, pp.S594-S599
ISSN
1537-6613
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
S594
End Page
S599
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume
210
Copyright Statement
© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious
Diseases Societyof America. This is an Open Accessarticle distributed undertheterms
of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/
by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original work is properly cited
Diseases Societyof America. This is an Open Accessarticle distributed undertheterms
of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/
by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original work is properly cited
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Immunology
Infectious Diseases
Microbiology
men who have sex with men
primary HIV infection
diagnosis
counseling
behavior change
HIV transmission risk
infections averted
mathematical model
PREVENTION
PREVALENCE
PARTNERS
INCREASE
RATES
STAGE
ACT
UK
Publication Status
Published