Opportunities for decentralised solar power to improve reliability, reduce emissions and avoid stranded assets
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Despite recent improvements to electricity access in lower-income countries, reliability remains low for many. Local renewable electricity infrastructure supplementing the national grid offers a promising route to improved reliability for rural communities. However, improvements in the reliability of national grids create risks for investors including the possibility of “stranded” renewable assets. We use energy-system modelling to explore ways in which solar photovoltaic (PV)-based mini-grids could be interconnected with national grids. We explore the impact of reduced electricity demand to quantify the investment risks of losing customers. Our results indicate that national grid–connected mini-grids can reduce the unit electricity costs for communities whilst also increasing reliability and reducing the carbon intensity of electricity in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. Reductions in demand have a minimal impact at lower levels but at moderate levels are likely to undermine economic viability. Finally, we discuss policy interventions to facilitate and protect investing in national grid-connected mini-grids.
Date Issued
2025-08-28
Date Acceptance
2025-08-05
Citation
Nature Communications, 2025, 16
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
16
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
8061
Date Publish Online
2025-08-28