Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study
File(s)
Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In Brazil, bioelectricity generation from sugarcane bagasse and black liquor is regarded as a sustainable electricity supply option. However, questions regarding land use, investment decisions, and demand for paper, ethanol and sugar make its future role uncertain. The aim of this paper is to present a novel modelling framework based on a soft-link between a multi-sectoral Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) and an electricity portfolio optimisation model (EPOM). The proposed framework is capable of dynamically simulating sectoral electricity demand, regional bioenergy production under land use constraints and optimal power sector technological shares in each of the electricity subsystems. Considering Brazil under a 2 °C carbon budget, two scenarios based on economic attractiveness of producing second-generation ethanol have been investigated. Under the scenario where second-generation ethanol is not produced, outputs indicate that by 2050, Brazil would increase sugarcane and wood production by 68% and 49% respectively without causing direct or indirect deforestation. Agriculture intensification is evidenced as an alternative for reducing land use disruptions. Bioelectricity share is projected to remain around 9–10%. However, if second generation ethanol becomes cost-effective, thus limiting bagasse availability, the share of bioelectricity production would decrease to approximately 7.7%, with natural gas-fired plants playing a stronger role in the future power system expansion, causing an increase on electricity sector emissions.
Date Issued
2020-05-01
Date Acceptance
2020-02-08
Citation
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020, 123, pp.1-15
ISSN
1364-0321
Start Page
1
End Page
15
Journal / Book Title
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Volume
123
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120300617?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
NE/N018656/1
Subjects
Energy
09 Engineering
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2020-02-18