On the optimality of score-driven models
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Published version
Author(s)
Gorgi, P
Lauria, CSA
Luati, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Score-driven models have been recently introduced as a general framework to specify time-varying parameters of conditional densities. %The underlying idea is to specify a time-varying parameter as an autoregressive process with innovation given by the score of the associated log-likelihood. The score enjoys stochastic properties that make these models easy to implement and convenient to apply in several contexts, ranging from biostatistics to finance. Score-driven parameter updates have been shown to be optimal in terms of locally reducing a local version of the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the true conditional density and the postulated density of the model. A key limitation of such an optimality property is that it holds only locally both in the parameter space and sample space, yielding to a definition of local Kullback–Leibler divergence that is in fact not a divergence measure. The current paper shows that score-driven updates satisfy stronger optimality properties that are based on a global definition of Kullback–Leibler divergence. In particular, it is shown that score-driven updates reduce the distance between the expected updated parameter and the pseudo-true parameter. Furthermore, depending on the conditional density and the scaling of the score, the optimality result can hold globally over the parameter space, which can be viewed as a generalization of the monotonicity property of the stochastic gradient descent scheme. Several examples illustrate how the results derived in the paper apply to specific models under different easy-to-check assumptions, and provide a formal method to select the link-function and the scaling of the score.
Date Issued
2024-09-01
Date Acceptance
2023-10-23
Citation
Biometrika, 2024, 111 (3), pp.865-880
ISSN
0006-3444
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
865
End Page
880
Journal / Book Title
Biometrika
Volume
111
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Biometrika Trust.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asad067
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
asad067
Date Publish Online
2023-11-09