Predicted effectiveness of daily and non-daily PrEP for MSM based on sex and pill-taking patterns from HPTN 067/ADAPT
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background: HPTN 067/ADAPT evaluated the feasibility of daily and non-daily HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) regimens among high-risk populations, including men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women, in Bangkok, Thailand and Harlem, New York, U.S. We used a mathematical model to predict the efficacy and effectiveness of different dosing regimens.
Methods: An individual-based mathematical model was used to simulate annual HIV incidence among MSM cohorts. PrEP efficacy for covered sex acts, as defined in the HPTN 067/ADAPT protocol, was estimated using subgroup efficacy estimates from the iPrEx trial. Effectiveness was estimated by comparison of the HIV incidence with and without PrEP use.
Results: We estimated that PrEP was highly protective (85%–96% efficacy across regimens and sites) for fully covered acts. PrEP was more protective for partially covered acts in Bangkok (71%–88% efficacy) than in Harlem (62%–81% efficacy). Our model projects 80%, 62%, and 68% effectiveness of daily, time-driven, and event-driven PrEP for MSM in Harlem compared with 90%, 85% and 79% for MSM in Bangkok. Halving the efficacy for partially covered acts decreases effectiveness by 8–9 percentage points in Harlem and by 5–9 percentage points in Bangkok across regimens.
Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that PrEP was more effective among MSM in Thailand than in the U.S. as a result of more fully covered sex acts and more pills taken around partially covered acts. Overall, non-daily PrEP was less effective than daily PrEP, especially in the U.S. where the sex act coverage associated with daily use was substantially higher.
Methods: An individual-based mathematical model was used to simulate annual HIV incidence among MSM cohorts. PrEP efficacy for covered sex acts, as defined in the HPTN 067/ADAPT protocol, was estimated using subgroup efficacy estimates from the iPrEx trial. Effectiveness was estimated by comparison of the HIV incidence with and without PrEP use.
Results: We estimated that PrEP was highly protective (85%–96% efficacy across regimens and sites) for fully covered acts. PrEP was more protective for partially covered acts in Bangkok (71%–88% efficacy) than in Harlem (62%–81% efficacy). Our model projects 80%, 62%, and 68% effectiveness of daily, time-driven, and event-driven PrEP for MSM in Harlem compared with 90%, 85% and 79% for MSM in Bangkok. Halving the efficacy for partially covered acts decreases effectiveness by 8–9 percentage points in Harlem and by 5–9 percentage points in Bangkok across regimens.
Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that PrEP was more effective among MSM in Thailand than in the U.S. as a result of more fully covered sex acts and more pills taken around partially covered acts. Overall, non-daily PrEP was less effective than daily PrEP, especially in the U.S. where the sex act coverage associated with daily use was substantially higher.
Date Issued
2020-07-15
Date Acceptance
2019-07-10
Citation
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2020, 71 (2), pp.249-255
ISSN
1058-4838
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
249
End Page
255
Journal / Book Title
Clinical Infectious Diseases
Volume
71
Issue
2
Sponsor
National Institutes of Health
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
UM1AI068617 Sub#0001014222
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
HIV incidence
HIV prevention
mathematical model
preexposure prophylaxis
Microbiology
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-08-22