The burden of seasonal respiratory infections on a national telehealth service in England
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Seasonal respiratory illnesses present a major burden on primary care services. We assessed the
burden of respiratory illness on a national telehealth system in England and investigated the
potential for providing early warning of respiratory infection. We compared weekly laboratory
reports for respiratory pathogens with telehealth calls (NHS 111) between week 40 in 2013 and
week 29 in 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to identify which pathogens had a
significant association with respiratory calls. Children aged <5 and 5–14 years, and adults over
65 years were modelled separately as were time lags of up to 4 weeks between calls and
laboratory specimen dates. Associations with respiratory pathogens explained over 83% of the
variation in cold/flu, cough and difficulty breathing calls. Based on the first two seasons
available, the greatest burden was associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and
influenza, with associations found in all age bands. The most sensitive signal for influenza was
calls for ‘cold/flu’, whilst for RSV it was calls for cough. The best-fitting models showed calls
increasing a week before laboratory specimen dates. Daily surveillance of these calls can provide
early warning of seasonal rises in influenza and RSV, contributing to the national respiratory
surveillance programme.
burden of respiratory illness on a national telehealth system in England and investigated the
potential for providing early warning of respiratory infection. We compared weekly laboratory
reports for respiratory pathogens with telehealth calls (NHS 111) between week 40 in 2013 and
week 29 in 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to identify which pathogens had a
significant association with respiratory calls. Children aged <5 and 5–14 years, and adults over
65 years were modelled separately as were time lags of up to 4 weeks between calls and
laboratory specimen dates. Associations with respiratory pathogens explained over 83% of the
variation in cold/flu, cough and difficulty breathing calls. Based on the first two seasons
available, the greatest burden was associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and
influenza, with associations found in all age bands. The most sensitive signal for influenza was
calls for ‘cold/flu’, whilst for RSV it was calls for cough. The best-fitting models showed calls
increasing a week before laboratory specimen dates. Daily surveillance of these calls can provide
early warning of seasonal rises in influenza and RSV, contributing to the national respiratory
surveillance programme.
Date Issued
2017-04-17
Date Acceptance
2017-03-15
Citation
Epidemiology and Infection, 2017, 145 (9), pp.1922-1932
ISSN
0950-2688
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Start Page
1922
End Page
1932
Journal / Book Title
Epidemiology and Infection
Volume
145
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© Cambridge University Press 2017. This paper has been accepted for publication and will appear in a revised form, subsequent to peer-review and/or editorial input by Cambridge University Press.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Infectious Diseases
Early warning
public health
respiratory
syndromic surveillance
telehealth
SYNCYTIAL VIRUS-INFECTION
INFLUENZA-LIKE ILLNESS
SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
HOSPITALIZED CHILDREN
UNITED-KINGDOM
YOUNG-CHILDREN
NHS DIRECT
COMMUNITY
PATHOGENS
OUTBREAKS
Publication Status
Published