Dynamic models augmented by hierarchical data: an application of estimating HIV epidemics at sub-national level
File(s)kxae003.pdf (738.36 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Le, Bao
Niu, Xiaoyue
Brown, Tim
Imai-Eaton, Jeffrey W
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently, HIV interventions and policies have required more information at sub-national levels to support local planning, decision-making and resource allocation. Unfortunately, many areas lack sufficient data for deriving stable and reliable results, and this is a critical technical barrier to more stratified estimates. One solution is to borrow information from other areas within the same country. However, directly assuming hierarchical structures within the HIV dynamic models is complicated and computationally time-consuming. In this article, we propose a simple and innovative way to incorporate hierarchical information into the dynamical systems by using auxiliary data. The proposed method efficiently uses information from multiple areas within each country without increasing the computational burden. As a result, the new model improves predictive ability and uncertainty assessment.
Date Issued
2024-10
Date Acceptance
2024-01-11
Citation
Biostatistics, 2024, 25 (4), pp.1049-1061
ISSN
1465-4644
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
1049
End Page
1061
Journal / Book Title
Biostatistics
Volume
25
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© The Author 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae003
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
kxae003
Date Publish Online
2024-02-29