Do speed cameras reduce road traffic collisions?
File(s)journal.pone.0221267.pdf (661.44 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Graham, Daniel
Niak, C
McCoy, EJ
Li, H
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road trafficcollisions using anapproximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method.Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range ofestimatedeffects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayesapproach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality andconfounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combinespropensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatmenteffect (ATE)estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification ofeither of the two component models. We develop this approach withina novelapproximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for theATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicatesignificant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE =-15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transportsafety interventions.
Date Issued
2019-09-16
Date Acceptance
2019-09-05
Citation
PLoS One, 2019, 14 (9)
ISSN
1932-6203
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS One
Volume
14
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Graham et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Subjects
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e0221267