Pitfalls in the management of induced seismicity
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Bommer, Julian J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Induced seismicity poses a potential threat to the viability of many energy-related projects involving injection or extraction of fluids. Important advances have been made in terms of protocols to manage induced seismicity in such projects, including guidelines for seismic monitoring and communications prior to operations and following the occurrence of seismic events. However, for such protocols to guarantee successful management of induced seismicity it may be necessary to include additional elements, that have not been explicitly addressed, in the mitigation strategy. These elements, identified from case histories in which induced earthquakes have led to interruption or suspension of operations, can be broadly grouped into two categories: quantification of the seismic risk due to induced earthquakes and effective and balanced risk-based regulation. While clear and effective communication of the risk to the public is often highlighted as a key factor, this requires that the risk is first correctly quantified, and secondly that the regulatory body takes at least partial responsibility for explaining the risk and providing assurance that it is acceptably low. Such action by the regulatory authority would be premised on the basis of the operator demonstrating compliance with risk-based targets, as is done in the nuclear industry. Potential pitfalls in the quantification of the physical risk from induced earthquakes include exaggeration of the impact of small-magnitude events, overly conservative values of the upper bound magnitudes, modelling choices that lead to biased estimates of the hazard due to induced seismicity relative to that from natural earthquakes, and the use of inappropriate risk metrics.
Date Issued
2026-04-01
Date Acceptance
2026-01-26
Citation
Journal of Seismology, 2026, 30 (2)
ISSN
1383-4649
Publisher
Springer
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Seismology
Volume
30
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2026 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
25
Date Publish Online
2026-03-17