Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.
Date Issued
2023-07-20
Date Acceptance
2023-06-02
Citation
Cell, 2023, 186 (15), pp.3277-3290.e16
ISSN
0092-8674
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
3277
End Page
3290.e16
Journal / Book Title
Cell
Volume
186
Issue
15
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37413988
PII: S0092-8674(23)00641-4
Subjects
Air Travel
COVID-19
Humans
Phylogeny
SARS-CoV-2
genomics
global dispersal
mobility
phylogenetics
phylogeography
SARS-CoV-2
travel
variants
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2023-06-07