Earthquake hazard and risk analysis for natural and induced seismicity: towards objective assessments in the face of uncertainty.
File(s)
Author(s)
Bommer, Julian J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The fundamental objective of earthquake engineering is to protect lives and livelihoods through the reduction of seismic risk. Directly or indirectly, this generally requires quantification of the risk, for which quantification of the seismic hazard is required as a basic input. Over the last several decades, the practice of seismic hazard analysis has evolved enormously, firstly with the introduction of a rational framework for handling the apparent randomness in earthquake processes, which also enabled risk assessments to consider both the severity and likelihood of earthquake effects. The next major evolutionary step was the identification of epistemic uncertainties related to incomplete knowledge, and the formulation of frameworks for both their quantification and their incorporation into hazard assessments. Despite these advances in the practice of seismic hazard analysis, it is not uncommon for the acceptance of seismic hazard estimates to be hindered by invalid comparisons, resistance to new information that challenges prevailing views, and attachment to previous estimates of the hazard. The challenge of achieving impartial acceptance of seismic hazard and risk estimates becomes even more acute in the case of earthquakes attributed to human activities. A more rational evaluation of seismic hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes may be facilitated by adopting, with appropriate adaptations, the advances in risk quantification and risk mitigation developed for natural seismicity. While such practices may provide an impartial starting point for decision making regarding risk mitigation measures, the most promising avenue to achieve broad societal acceptance of the risks associated with induced earthquakes is through effective regulation, which needs to be transparent, independent, and informed by risk considerations based on both sound seismological science and reliable earthquake engineering.
Date Acceptance
2022-02-05
Citation
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 20 (6), pp.2825-3069
ISSN
1570-761X
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
2825
End Page
3069
Journal / Book Title
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Volume
20
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. The version of record of this article, first published in Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering is available online at Publisher’s website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01357-4
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35474945
PII: 1357
Subjects
Earthquake hazards
Epistemic uncertainty
Induced seismicity
Seismic hazard analysis
Seismic risk
Seismic risk mitigation
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Date Publish Online
2022-04-22