Parameter inference with estimated covariance matrices
File(s)MNRAS-2016-Sellentin-L132-6.pdf (774.3 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Sellentin, E
Heavens, AF
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be estimated and thereby becomes a random object with some intrinsic uncertainty itself. We show how to infer parameters in the presence of such an estimated covariance matrix, by marginalizing over the true covariance matrix, conditioned on its estimated value. This leads to a likelihood function that is no longer Gaussian, but rather an adapted version of a multivariate t-distribution, which has the same numerical complexity as the multivariate Gaussian. As expected, marginalization over the true covariance matrix improves inference when compared with Hartlap et al.'s method, which uses an unbiased estimate of the inverse covariance matrix but still assumes that the likelihood is Gaussian.
Date Issued
2016-02-11
Date Acceptance
2015-11-26
Citation
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2016, 456 (1), pp.L132-L136
ISSN
1365-2966
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
L132
End Page
L136
Journal / Book Title
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume
456
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
This article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
Sponsor
Imperial College Trust
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
Science and Technology Facilities Council [2006-2012]
Grant Number
N/A
ST/K001051/1
ST/K001051/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
methods: data analysis
methods: statistical
cosmology: observations
astro-ph.CO
astro-ph.CO
stat.ME
Astronomy & Astrophysics
0201 Astronomical and Space Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2015-12-22