Key findings from the core North American scenarios in the EMF34 intermodel comparison
File(s)SummaryFinal.docx (2.83 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Within Canada, Mexico or the United States, policy-making organizations are evaluating energy markets and energy trade within their own borders often by ignoring how these countries’ energy systems are integrated with each other. These analytical gaps provided the main motivation for the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 study on North American energy integration and trade. This paper compares North American results from 17 models and discusses their policy motivation. Oil and natural gas production in the three major countries are modestly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas price changes, although these elasticities are below unity. Carbon taxes displace coal and some natural gas with renewables within all three power markets. Lower natural gas prices replace coal and some renewables with natural gas within electric generation. Higher intermittent renewable penetration in the power sector displaces coal and some natural gas. A key conclusion is that much remains to be done in integrating future analyses and in sharing and improving the quality and consistency of the underlying data.
Date Issued
2020-09
Date Acceptance
2020-05-08
Citation
Energy Policy, 2020, 144, pp.1-23
ISSN
0301-4215
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
1
End Page
23
Journal / Book Title
Energy Policy
Volume
144
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520303372?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
NE/N018656/1
Subjects
Energy
Publication Status
Published online
Article Number
111599
Date Publish Online
2020-06-30