Can the UK meet the World Health Organization Pm2.5 interim target of 10 Μg M-3 by 2030, whilst working towards net zero?
Author(s)
Type
preprint
Abstract
The recent United Kingdom (UK) Environment Bill consultation had the intention of setting two targets for PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm), one related to meeting an annual average concentration and the second to reducing population exposure. As part of the consultation, predictions of PM2.5 concentrations in 2030 were made by combining European Union (EU) and UK government’s emissions forecasts, with the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Net Zero vehicle forecasts, and in London local policies based on the London Environment Strategy (LES). Predictions in 2018 showed 6.4% of the UK’s area and 82.6% of London’s area had PM2.5 concentrations above the World Health Organization (WHO) interim target of 10 μg m-3, but by 2030, over 99% of the UK’s area was predicted to be below it. However, kerbside concentrations in London and other major cities were still at risks of exceeding 10 μg m-3. With local action on PM2.5 in London, population weighted concentrations showed full compliance with the WHO interim target of 10 μg m-3 in 2030. Whilst predicting future PM2.5 concentrations will always be uncertain for many reasons, such as imperfect models and the difficulty in estimating future emissions, our results point to the benefits that policy efforts to reduce EU, UK, Net Zero and city emissions can have on achieving the WHO PM2.5 interim target of 10 μg m-3. These results were submitted to the UK Environment Bill consultation.
Date Issued
2023-06-28
Citation
SSRN, 2023
Journal / Book Title
SSRN
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Author(s).
Subjects
climate change
Air pollution modelling
Airborne Particulate Matter
WHO guidelines