Historical and current spatiotemporal patterns of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus spread
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have become a major threat to polio eradication. However, variations in spatiotemporal spread have not been quantified. Here we analysed cVDPV2 cases and wild poliovirus type 1 sequences to uncover spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of poliovirus spread. Between 1 May 2016 and 29 September 2023, 3,120 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases were reported across 75 outbreaks in 39 countries. Outbreaks had a median observed circulation of 202 (range 0–1,905) days and a median maximum distance of 231 (range 0–4,442) km. Wavefront velocity analysis of large outbreaks revealed a median velocity of spread of 2.3 (5th–95th percentile 0.7–9.2) km per day. International borders were associated with a slower velocity of spread (P < 0.001), in periods with high estimated population immunity. Phylogeographic analysis of 1,572 global wild poliovirus 1 sequences revealed that historic spread resembles recent cVDPV2 patterns and that international spread is largely sustained by unidirectional movement between neighbouring countries. Our findings offer insights for enhancing the geographical scope of vaccination response in the final phases of poliovirus eradication.
Date Issued
2025-12-01
Date Acceptance
2025-10-06
Citation
Nature Microbiology, 2025, 10 (1), pp.3148-3161
ISSN
2058-5276
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
3148
End Page
3161
Journal / Book Title
Nature Microbiology
Volume
10
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41310234
PII: 10.1038/s41564-025-02174-6
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Microbiology
TYPE-2 VACCINE
DYNAMICS
MODEL
ERADICATION
WORLDWIDE
EPIDEMIC
PROGRESS
TIME
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2025-11-27