Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs
File(s)
Uncorrected proof version
Author(s)
Gold, Susannah
Donnelly, Christl
Woodroffe, Rosie
Nouvellet, Pierre
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease.
Date Issued
2021-07-20
Date Acceptance
2021-06-21
Citation
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2021, 15 (7), pp.1-19
ISSN
1935-2727
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Start Page
1
End Page
19
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume
15
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Gold et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Tropical Medicine
Publication Status
Published online
Article Number
e0009581
Date Publish Online
2021-07-20