Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics
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Published version
Author(s)
Eckhoff, PA
Wenger, EA
Godfray, HC
Burt, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The renewed effort to eliminate malaria and permanently remove its tremendous burden highlights questions of what combination of tools would be sufficient in various settings and what new tools need to be developed. Gene drive mosquitoes constitute a promising set of tools, with multiple different possible approaches including population replacement with introduced genes limiting malaria transmission, driving-Y chromosomes to collapse a mosquito population, and gene drive disrupting a fertility gene and thereby achieving population suppression or collapse. Each of these approaches has had recent success and advances under laboratory conditions, raising the urgency for understanding how each could be deployed in the real world and the potential impacts of each. New analyses are needed as existing models of gene drive primarily focus on nonseasonal or nonspatial dynamics. We use a mechanistic, spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based mathematical model to simulate each gene drive approach in a variety of sub-Saharan African settings. Each approach exhibits a broad region of gene construct parameter space with successful elimination of malaria transmission due to the targeted vector species. The introduction of realistic seasonality in vector population dynamics facilitates gene drive success compared with nonseasonal analyses. Spatial simulations illustrate constraints on release timing, frequency, and spatial density in the most challenging settings for construct success. Within its parameter space for success, each gene drive approach provides a tool for malaria elimination unlike anything presently available. Provided potential barriers to success are surmounted, each achieves high efficacy at reducing transmission potential and lower delivery requirements in logistically challenged settings.
Date Issued
2017-12-27
Date Acceptance
2016-11-29
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017, 114 (2), pp.E255-E264
ISSN
1091-6490
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Start Page
E255
End Page
E264
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume
114
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2016 The Authors. Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
Sponsor
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Grand Challenges in Global Health
The Royal Society
Identifier
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28028208
PII: 1611064114
Grant Number
OPP1141988
BURT12/VCTR
WM110082
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
malaria
elimination
gene drive
Anopheles
mosquitoes
PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM MALARIA
HOMING ENDONUCLEASE GENES
INSECTICIDE-TREATED NETS
ANOPHELES-GAMBIAE
VECTOR
POPULATION
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM
OVIPOSITION
INFECTION
Anopheles
elimination
gene drive
malaria
mosquitoes
Animals
Anopheles
Gene Drive Technology
Insect Vectors
Malaria
Models, Theoretical
Mosquito Control
Tanzania
Animals
Anopheles
Malaria
Insect Vectors
Mosquito Control
Models, Theoretical
Tanzania
Gene Drive Technology
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2016-12-27