Comparison of HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees estimated from routine testing and unlinked anonymous testing
File(s)RT_paper_Version2.pdf (505.73 KB) real_RT_paper_final_appendix.pdf (1.37 MB)
Accepted version
Supporting information
Author(s)
Sheng, Ben
Eaton, Jeffrey W
Mahy, Mary
Bao, Le
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In 2015, WHO and UNAIDS released new guidance recommending that countries transition from conducting antenatal clinic (ANC) unlinked anonymous testing (ANC-UAT) for tracking HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women to using ANC routine testing (ANC-RT) data, which are more consistent and economic to collect. This transition could pose challenges for distinguishing whether changes in observed prevalence are due to a change in underlying population prevalence or due to a change in the testing approach. We compared the HIV prevalence measured from ANC-UAT and ANC-RT in 15 countries that had both data sources in overlapping years. We used linear mixed-effects model (LMM) to estimate the RT-to-UAT calibration parameter as well as other unobserved quantities. We summarized the results at different levels of aggregation (e.g., country, urban, rural, and province). Based on our analysis, the HIV prevalence measured by ANC-UAT and ANC-RT data are consistent in most countries. Therefore, if large discrepancy is observed between ANC-UAT and ANC-RT at the same location, we recommend that people should be cautious and investigate the reason. For countries that lack information to estimate the calibration parameter, we propose an informative prior distribution of mean 0 and standard deviation 0.2 for the RT-to-UAT calibration parameter.
Date Issued
2020-12-01
Date Acceptance
2020-01-08
Citation
Statistics in Biosciences, 2020, 12, pp.279-294
ISSN
1867-1772
Publisher
Springer Verlag
Start Page
279
End Page
294
Journal / Book Title
Statistics in Biosciences
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
© International Chinese Statistical Association 2020. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s12561-020-09265-4
Sponsor
National Institutes of Health
National Institutes of Health
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000517014400001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
1R03AI125001-01A1
5776-ICS-DHHS-6664
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Antenatal clinic
HIV prevalence
Unlinked anonymous HIV testing
Routine HIV testing
Calibration parameter
Linear mixed-effects model
PROJECTION PACKAGE
UNAIDS ESTIMATION
SURVEILLANCE
TRANSITION
INFECTION
TRENDS
MODEL
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-02-28