Network memory in the movement of hospital patients carrying
drug-resistant bacteria
drug-resistant bacteria
File(s)s41109-021-00376-5.pdf (2.59 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Hospitals constitute highly interconnected systems that bring into contact an
abundance of infectious pathogens and susceptible individuals, thus making
infection outbreaks both common and challenging. In recent years, there has
been a sharp incidence of antimicrobial-resistance amongst
healthcare-associated infections, a situation now considered endemic in many
countries. Here we present network-based analyses of a data set capturing the
movement of patients harbouring drug-resistant bacteria across three large
London hospitals. We show that there are substantial memory effects in the
movement of hospital patients colonised with drug-resistant bacteria. Such
memory effects break first-order Markovian transitive assumptions and
substantially alter the conclusions from the analysis, specifically on node
rankings and the evolution of diffusive processes. We capture variable length
memory effects by constructing a lumped-state memory network, which we then use
to identify overlapping communities of wards. We find that these communities of
wards display a quasi-hierarchical structure at different levels of granularity
which is consistent with different aspects of patient flows related to hospital
locations and medical specialties.
abundance of infectious pathogens and susceptible individuals, thus making
infection outbreaks both common and challenging. In recent years, there has
been a sharp incidence of antimicrobial-resistance amongst
healthcare-associated infections, a situation now considered endemic in many
countries. Here we present network-based analyses of a data set capturing the
movement of patients harbouring drug-resistant bacteria across three large
London hospitals. We show that there are substantial memory effects in the
movement of hospital patients colonised with drug-resistant bacteria. Such
memory effects break first-order Markovian transitive assumptions and
substantially alter the conclusions from the analysis, specifically on node
rankings and the evolution of diffusive processes. We capture variable length
memory effects by constructing a lumped-state memory network, which we then use
to identify overlapping communities of wards. We find that these communities of
wards display a quasi-hierarchical structure at different levels of granularity
which is consistent with different aspects of patient flows related to hospital
locations and medical specialties.
Date Issued
2021-05-03
Date Acceptance
2021-04-20
Citation
Applied Network Science, 2021, 6
ISSN
2364-8228
Publisher
SpringerOpen
Journal / Book Title
Applied Network Science
Volume
6
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
World Health Organization
Identifier
http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14480v2
Grant Number
EP/N014529/1
1842-01-IMP
2020/1072715-1
Subjects
physics.soc-ph
physics.soc-ph
Notes
16 pages. 8 main figures. Submitted to the Applied Network Science Special Issue on Epidemic Dynamics and Control on Networks
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 34