Home quarantine or centralized quarantine? A mathematical modelling study on the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangzhou in 2021.
File(s)WangEtAl2022HomeQuarantineGuangzou10.3934_mbe.2022421.pdf (1.24 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Several outbreaks of COVID-19 caused by imported cases have occurred in China following the successful control of the outbreak in early 2020. In order to avoid recurrences of such local outbreaks, it is important to devise an efficient control and prevention strategy. In this paper, we developed a stochastic discrete model of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangzhou in 2021 to compare the effectiveness of centralized quarantine and compulsory home quarantine measures. The model was calibrated by using the daily reported cases and newly centralized quarantined cases. The estimated results showed that the home quarantine measure increased the accuracy of contact tracing. The estimated basic reproduction number was lower than that in 2020, even with a much more transmissible variant, demonstrating the effectiveness of the vaccines and normalized control interventions. Sensitivity analysis indicated that a sufficiently implemented contact tracing and centralized quarantine strategy in the initial stage would contain the epidemic faster with less infections even with a weakly implemented compulsory home quarantine measure. However, if the accuracy of the contact tracing was insufficient, then early implementation of the compulsory home quarantine with strict contact tracing, screening and testing interventions on the key individuals would shorten the epidemic duration and reduce the total number of infected cases. Particularly, 94 infections would have been avoided if the home quarantine measure had been implemented 3 days earlier and an extra 190 infections would have arisen if the home quarantine measure was implemented 3 days later. The study suggested that more attention should be paid to the precise control strategy during the initial stage of the epidemic, otherwise the key group-based control measure should be implemented strictly.
Date Issued
2022-06-22
Date Acceptance
2022-06-13
Citation
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19 (9), pp.9060-9078
ISSN
1547-1063
Publisher
AIMS Press
Start Page
9060
End Page
9078
Journal / Book Title
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume
19
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
©2022 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access
article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35942749
Subjects
COVID-19
centralized quarantine
home quarantine
within-family transmission
Basic Reproduction Number
COVID-19
Contact Tracing
Humans
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2022-06-22