Analysing the health effects of simultaneous exposure to physical and chemical properties of airborne particles
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background:Airborne particles are a complex mix of organic and inorganic compounds, with a range of physical and chemical properties. Estimation of how simultaneous exposure to air particles affects the risk of adverse health response represents a challenge for scientific research and air quality management. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach that can tackle this problem within the framework of time series analysis.Methods:We used Dirichlet process mixture models to cluster time points with similar multipollutant and response profiles, while adjusting for seasonal cycles, trends and temporal components. Inference was carried out via Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrated our approach using daily data of a range of particle metrics and respiratory mortality for London (UK) 2002–2005. To better quantify the average health impact of these particles, we measured the same set of metrics in 2012, and we computed and compared the posterior predictive distributions of mortality under the exposure scenario in 2012 vs 2005.Results:The model resulted in a partition of the days into three clusters. We found a relative risk of 1.02 (95% credible intervals (CI): 1.00, 1.04) for respiratory mortality associated with days characterised by high posterior estimates of non-primary particles, especially nitrate and sulphate. We found a consistent reduction in the airborne particles in 2012 vs 2005 and the analysis of the posterior predictive distributions of respiratory mortality suggested an average annual decrease of − 3.5% (95% CI: − 0.12%, − 5.74%).Conclusions:We proposed an effective approach that enabled the better understanding of hidden structures in multipollutant health effects within time series analysis. It allowed the identification of exposure metrics associated with respiratory mortality and provided a tool to assess the changes in health effects from various policies to control the ambient particle matter mixtures.
Date Issued
2015
Date Acceptance
2015-02-19
Citation
Environment International, 2015, 79, pp.56-64
ISSN
0160-4120
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
56
End Page
64
Journal / Book Title
Environment International
Volume
79
Copyright Statement
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Airborne particles
Bayesian inference
Dirichlet process mixture model
Time series
Respiratory mortality
FINITE MIXTURE-MODELS
TIME-SERIES-ANALYSIS
SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE
AIR-POLLUTION
PARTICULATE MATTER
MULTIPOLLUTANT PROFILES
NONPARAMETRIC PROBLEMS
LUNG-CANCER
ASSOCIATION
REGRESSION
Air Pollutants
Air Pollution
Bayes Theorem
Humans
London
Models, Theoretical
Nitrogen Oxides
Particulate Matter
Regression Analysis
Respiration Disorders
Risk Factors
Sulfates
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published