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  5. Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths
 
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Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths
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Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-tr.pdf (913.16 KB)
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Author(s)
Malizia, Veronica
Giardina, Federica
Vegvari, Carolin
Bajaj, Sumali
McRae-McKee, Kevin
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Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: On 1 April 2020, the WHO recommended an interruption of all activities for the control of neglected tropical diseases, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH. METHODS: We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigated the extent to which this impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semiannual or community-wide PC. RESULTS: Both models show that without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030, assuming that coverage is maintained. The catch-up time can be up to 4.5 y after the start of the interruption. Mitigation strategies may reduce this time by up to 2 y and increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target. CONCLUSIONS: Although a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate progress towards reaching the target.
Date Issued
2021-03-06
Date Acceptance
2020-11-23
Citation
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2021, 115 (3), pp.253-260
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/88188
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/traa156
ISSN
0035-9203
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
253
End Page
260
Journal / Book Title
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume
115
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. This is an Open Accessarticle distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permitsunrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Sponsor
The Task Force for Global Health
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33313897
PII: 6033510
Grant Number
1708CR001/VP1 (OPP1184344)
Subjects
COVID-19-related interruption
WHO 2030 target
control programmes
individual-based models
soil-transmitted helminths
Animals
Anthelmintics
COVID-19
Helminthiasis
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Neglected Diseases
Pandemics
SARS-CoV-2
Soil
World Health Organization
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2020-12-14
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