The impact of global warming on U.S. hurricane landfall: a storyline approach
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Sparks, Nathan
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The projection of hurricane activity under climate change is challenging. The Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) was used to analyse the impact of global warming on North Atlantic hurricane landfall through a storyline approach. The storyline assumes increases of potential intensity (PI) as the cause of change with no changes to tracks or basin frequency. This allows study of both recent
trends and projections for the first time in a consistent way. The observed hurricane intensification is simulated but underestimated. For a +2◦C global warming scenario hurricanes of intensity Category 4 and above become 62% more likely in the basin and nearly twice (92%) more likely at landfall. The future number of hurricanes, their decay and tracks are uncertain and their impact is examined by sensitivity studies. Reduction of the basin count offsets warming driven landfall frequency increases only for weaker hurricanes. The increased frequency and fraction of the most damaging landfalling hurricanes is controlled by changes in PI.
trends and projections for the first time in a consistent way. The observed hurricane intensification is simulated but underestimated. For a +2◦C global warming scenario hurricanes of intensity Category 4 and above become 62% more likely in the basin and nearly twice (92%) more likely at landfall. The future number of hurricanes, their decay and tracks are uncertain and their impact is examined by sensitivity studies. Reduction of the basin count offsets warming driven landfall frequency increases only for weaker hurricanes. The increased frequency and fraction of the most damaging landfalling hurricanes is controlled by changes in PI.
Date Issued
2025-11-01
Date Acceptance
2025-09-19
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2025, 20 (11)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
20
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Original Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
114006
Date Publish Online
2025-10-03