Development of a hypoglycaemia risk score to identify high-risk individuals with advanced type 2 diabetes in DEVOTE
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
AIMS: The ability to differentiate patient populations with type 2 diabetes at high risk of severe hypoglycaemia could impact clinical decision making. The aim of this study was to develop a risk score, using patient characteristics, that could differentiate between populations with higher and lower 2-year risk of severe hypoglycaemia among individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two models were developed for the risk score based on data from the DEVOTE cardiovascular outcomes trials. The first, a data-driven machine-learning model, used stepwise regression with bidirectional elimination to identify risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia. The second, a risk score based on known clinical risk factors accessible in clinical practice identified from the data-driven model, included: insulin treatment regimen; diabetes duration; sex; age; and glycated haemoglobin, all at baseline. Both the data-driven model and simple risk score were evaluated for discrimination, calibration and generalizability using data from DEVOTE, and were validated against the external LEADER cardiovascular outcomes trial dataset. RESULTS: Both the data-driven model and the simple risk score discriminated between patients at higher and lower hypoglycaemia risk, and performed similarly well based on the time-dependent area under the curve index (0.63 and 0.66, respectively) over a 2-year time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: Both the data-driven model and the simple hypoglycaemia risk score were able to discriminate between patients at higher and lower risk of severe hypoglycaemia, the latter doing so using easily accessible clinical data. The implementation of such a tool (http://www.hyporiskscore.com/) may facilitate improved recognition of, and education about, severe hypoglycaemia risk, potentially improving patient care.
Date Issued
2020-12-01
Date Acceptance
2020-09-25
Citation
Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism: a journal of pharmacology and therapeutics, 2020, 22 (12), pp.2248-2256
ISSN
1462-8902
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
2248
End Page
2256
Journal / Book Title
Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism: a journal of pharmacology and therapeutics
Volume
22
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32996693
Subjects
risk score
severe hypoglycaemia
type 2 diabetes
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
Glycated Hemoglobin A
Humans
Hypoglycemia
Hypoglycemic Agents
Insulin Glargine
Risk Factors
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2020-09-30