Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic
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Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing imports from other cities. We provide a method, combining daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume, to estimate importations from 18 Chinese cities to 43 international destinations, including 26 in Africa. Global case importations from China in early January came primarily from Wuhan, but the inferred source shifted to other cities in mid-February, especially for importations to African destinations. We estimate that 10.4 (6.2 - 27.1) COVID-19 cases were imported to these African destinations, which exhibited marked variation in their magnitude and main sources of importation. We estimate that 90% of imported cases arrived between 17 January and 7 February, prior to the first case detections. Our results highlight the dynamic role of source locations, which can help focus surveillance and response efforts.
Date Issued
2021-01-12
Date Acceptance
2020-11-13
Citation
Nature Communications, 2021, 12 (1)
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
12
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33436574
PII: 10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8
Subjects
Africa
Aircraft
COVID-19
China
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Prevalence
SARS-CoV-2
Travel
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
ARTN 311