On the convergence of adaptive sequential Monte Carlo methods
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Beskos, A
Jasra, A
Kantas, N
Thiery, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In several implementations of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods it is natural and important, in terms of algorithmic efficiency, to exploit the information of the history of the samples to optimally tune their subsequent propagations. In this article we provide a carefully formulated asymptotic theory for a class of such adaptive SMC methods. The theoretical framework developed here will cover, under assumptions, several commonly used SMC algorithms [Chopin, Biometrika 89 (2002) 539–551; Jasra et al., Scand. J. Stat. 38 (2011) 1–22; Schäfer and Chopin, Stat. Comput. 23 (2013) 163–184]. There are only limited results about the theoretical underpinning of such adaptive methods: we will bridge this gap by providing a weak law of large numbers (WLLN) and a central limit theorem (CLT) for some of these algorithms. The latter seems to be the first result of its kind in the literature and provides a formal justification of algorithms used in many real data contexts [Jasra et al. (2011); Schäfer and Chopin (2013)]. We establish that for a general class of adaptive SMC algorithms [Chopin (2002)], the asymptotic variance of the estimators from the adaptive SMC method is identical to a “limiting” SMC algorithm which uses ideal proposal kernels. Our results are supported by application on a complex high-dimensional posterior distribution associated with the Navier–Stokes model, where adapting high-dimensional parameters of the proposal kernels is critical for the efficiency of the algorithm.
Date Issued
2016-04-01
Date Acceptance
2015-01-31
Citation
Annals of Applied Probability, 2016, 26 (2), pp.1111-1146
ISSN
1050-5164
Publisher
Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS)
Start Page
1111
End Page
1146
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Applied Probability
Volume
26
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016. Beskos, Alexandros; Jasra, Ajay; Kantas, Nikolas; Thiery, Alexandre. On the convergence of adaptive sequential Monte Carlo methods. Ann. Appl. Probab. 26 (2016), no. 2, 1111--1146. doi:10.1214/15-AAP1113. http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1458651829.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Adaptive sequential Monte Carlo
CLT
MCMC
HIGH DIMENSIONS
MODELS
ALGORITHMS
STABILITY
INFERENCE
THEOREM
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-03-22