An approach to link climate model tropical cyclogenesis bias to large-scale wind circulation modes
Author(s)
Feng, Xiangbo
Toumi, Ralf
Roberts, Malcolm
Hodges, Kevin I
Vidale, Pier Luigi
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Attributing sources of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) bias to large-scale circulation in global circulation models is challenging. Here, we propose the use of empirical orthogonal functions as an approach to understand model bias of TCG. Two leading modes of large-scale wind circulations in the West Pacific can explain the TCG frequency and location in both climate reanalysis and the MetUM model. In the reanalysis, the two modes distinguish the summer monsoon trough position and the strength of the north Pacific subtropical high. However, in the model, the wind circulations are biased toward the positive phase of simulated modes thus overestimating TCG in the entire Main Development Region. This bias is further related to the north-eastward shifted monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high, and overly strong tropics-subtropics connections. This approach could be deployed more widely to other basins and models to diagnose the causes of TCG bias.
Date Issued
2023-08-16
Date Acceptance
2023-07-14
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50 (15)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
50
Issue
15
Copyright Statement
© 2023. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:001040890600001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON
CYCLONES
ENSEMBLE
Geology
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Physical Sciences
PREDICTION
Science & Technology
VARIABILITY
VORTICES
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2023GL103838
Date Publish Online
2023-08-01