Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Aims/hypothesis
The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.
Materials and methods
Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976–1992), the NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999–2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions.
Results
Based on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes.
Conclusions/interpretation
The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming.
The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.
Materials and methods
Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976–1992), the NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999–2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions.
Results
Based on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes.
Conclusions/interpretation
The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming.
Date Issued
2007-05-01
Date Acceptance
2006-10-19
Citation
Diabetologia, 2007, 50 (5), pp.934-940
ISSN
0012-186X
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
934
End Page
940
Journal / Book Title
Diabetologia
Volume
50
Issue
5
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000245521400006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
diabetes
Endocrinology & Metabolism
epidemiology
HEALTH
IMPAIRED GLUCOSE-TOLERANCE
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
OBESITY
PREVALENCE
projection
Science & Technology
SCORE
US ADULTS
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2006-11-21