Bayesian constraints on the astrophysical neutrino source population from IceCube data
File(s)PhysRevD.101.123017.pdf (9.6 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Capel, Francesca
Mortlock, Daniel
Finley, Chad
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We present constraints on an astrophysical population of neutrino sources imposed by recent data from the IceCube neutrino observatory. By using the IceCube point source search method to model the detection of sources, our detection criterion is more sensitive than using the observation of high-energy neutrino multiplets for source identification. We frame the problem as a Bayesian hierarchical model to connect the high-level population parameters to the IceCube data, allowing us to consistently account for all relevant sources of uncertainty in our model assumptions. Our results show that sources with a local density of
n
0
≳
10
−
7
Mpc
−
3
and luminosity
L
≲
10
43
erg
s
−
1
are the most likely candidates, but that populations of rare sources with
n
0
≃
10
−
9
Mpc
−
3
and
L
≃
10
45
erg
s
−
1
can still be consistent with the IceCube observations. We demonstrate that these conclusions are strongly dependent on the source evolution considered, for which we consider a wide range of models. In doing so, we present realistic, model-independent constraints on the population parameters that reflect our current state of knowledge from astrophysical neutrino observations. We also use our framework to investigate constraints in the case of possible source detections and future instrument upgrades. Our approach is flexible and can be used to model specific source cases and extended to include multimessenger information.
n
0
≳
10
−
7
Mpc
−
3
and luminosity
L
≲
10
43
erg
s
−
1
are the most likely candidates, but that populations of rare sources with
n
0
≃
10
−
9
Mpc
−
3
and
L
≃
10
45
erg
s
−
1
can still be consistent with the IceCube observations. We demonstrate that these conclusions are strongly dependent on the source evolution considered, for which we consider a wide range of models. In doing so, we present realistic, model-independent constraints on the population parameters that reflect our current state of knowledge from astrophysical neutrino observations. We also use our framework to investigate constraints in the case of possible source detections and future instrument upgrades. Our approach is flexible and can be used to model specific source cases and extended to include multimessenger information.
Date Issued
2020-06-16
Date Acceptance
2020-06-02
Citation
Physical Review D: Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology, 2020, 101, pp.123017 – 1-123017 – 21
ISSN
1550-2368
Publisher
American Physical Society
Start Page
123017 – 1
End Page
123017 – 21
Journal / Book Title
Physical Review D: Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology
Volume
101
Copyright Statement
Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI. Funded by Bibsam (https://www.kb.se/samverkan-och-utveckling/oppen-tillgang-och-bibsamkonsortiet/bibsamkonsortiet.html).
License URL
Sponsor
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
Identifier
https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.101.123017
Grant Number
ST/S000372/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Physics, Particles & Fields
Physics
HIGH-ENERGY NEUTRINOS
LUMINOSITY FUNCTION
EVOLUTION
ORIGIN
Nuclear & Particles Physics
0201 Astronomical and Space Sciences
0202 Atomic, Molecular, Nuclear, Particle and Plasma Physics
0206 Quantum Physics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-06-16