The Effect of Applying Alternate IPCC Climate Scenarios to Marine Reserve Design for Range Changing Species
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Effectively protecting of biodiversity in the future relies on reserves that accommodate potential climate change impacts. Climate predictions are based on plausible ranges of greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the IPCC, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). It is unknown how different scenarios influence spatial prioritization, particularly for species that change their range due to climate change. Using corals in Japan, we explore differences in priorities under three RCPs (RCP8.5, 4.5, and 2.6), comparing three time frames (current conditions, near future, and distant future). We targeted three temperature zones representing different coral community types, determined from predictions of sea-surface temperature for three RCPs. Results showed that using one RCP prediction to design a reserve system does a poor job at meeting conservation targets for other RCPs, missing up to 100% of the targets. We emphasize the importance of focusing conservation investment in “no regrets” areas that are important under every RCP.
Date Issued
2014-11-13
Date Acceptance
2014-10-07
Citation
Conservation Letters, 2014, 8 (5), pp.320-328
ISSN
1755-263X
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
320
End Page
328
Journal / Book Title
Conservation Letters
Volume
8
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biodiversity Conservation
Biodiversity & Conservation
Climate change
climate model
coral
IPCC
marine conservation
marine protected area
Marxan
Representative Concentration Pathway
sea-surface temperature
spatial prioritization
CORAL-REEF
CONSERVATION
BIODIVERSITY
AUSTRALIA
EXPANSION
PATTERNS
JAPAN
Ecology
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published