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  5. Using Bayesian deep learning to capture uncertainty for residential net load forecasting
 
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Using Bayesian deep learning to capture uncertainty for residential net load forecasting
File(s)
AcceptedBDL_V1.pdf (8.86 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Sun, Mingyang
Zhang, Tingqi
Wang, Yi
Strbac, Goran
Kang, Chongqing
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Decarbonization of electricity systems drives significant and continued investments in distributed energy sources to support the cost-effective transition to low-carbon energy systems. However, the rapid integration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation presents great challenges in obtaining reliable and secure grid operations because of its limited visibility and intermittent nature. Under this reality, net load forecasting is facing unprecedented difficulty in answering the following question: how can we accurately predict the net load while capturing the massive uncertainties arising from distributed PV generation and load, especially in the context of high PV penetration? This paper proposes a novel probabilistic day-ahead net load forecasting method to capture both epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty using Bayesian deep learning, which is a new field that combines Bayesian probability theory and deep learning. The proposed methodological framework employs clustering in subprofiles and considers residential rooftop PV outputs as input features to enhance the performance of aggregated net load forecasting. Numerical experiments have been carried out based on fine-grained smart meter data from the Australian grid with separately recorded measurements of rooftop PV generation and loads. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed scheme compared with a series of state-of-theart methods and indicate the importance and effectiveness of subprofile clustering and high PV visibility.
Date Issued
2020-01
Date Acceptance
2019-06-16
Citation
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2020, 35 (1), pp.188-201
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/71620
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2019.2924294
ISSN
0885-8950
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Start Page
188
End Page
201
Journal / Book Title
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume
35
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 IEEE. Personal use is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant Number
PO: 5510854 - WVR3114N
EP/R045518/1
Subjects
0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Energy
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-06-21
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