No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups
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Published version
Author(s)
Kontopoulos, Dimitrios-Georgios
Sentis, Arnaud
Daufresne, Martin
Pawar, Samraat
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.
Date Issued
2024-10-14
Date Acceptance
2024-09-27
Citation
Nature Communications, 2024, 15
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
15
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2024 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53046-2
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
8855
Date Publish Online
2024-10-14