Limited role of climate change in extreme low rainfall associated with southern Madagascar food insecurity, 2019-21
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Harrington, Luke J
Wolski, Piotr
Pinto, Izidine
Ramarosandratana, Anzela Mamiarisoa
Barimalala, Rondrotiana
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Southern Madagascar recently experienced a severe food security crisis, made significantly worse by well below average rainfall from July 2019 to June 2021. This exceptional drought has affected a region with high pre-existing levels of vulnerability to food insecurity (subsistence agriculture and pastoralism in the region is rain-fed only), while impacts have been compounded further by COVID-19 restrictions and pest infestations. The rainy seasons of both 2019/20 and 2020/21 saw just 60% of normal rainfall across the Grand South region and was estimated as a 1-in-135 year dry event, only surpassed in severity by the devastating drought of 1990–92. Based on a combination of observations and climate modelling, the likelihood of experiencing such poor rains in the region was not significantly increased due to human-caused climate change: while the observations and models combine to indicate a small shift toward more droughts like the 2019–2021 event as a consequence of climate change, these trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. This result is consistent with previous research, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report concluding that any perceptible changes in drought will only emerge in this region if global mean temperatures exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.
Date Issued
2022-12-01
Date Acceptance
2022-11-28
Citation
Environmental Research: Climate, 2022, 1 (2)
ISSN
2752-5295
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research: Climate
Volume
1
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
License URL
Subjects
climate change
drought
DROUGHT
ENSEMBLE
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
event attribution
INDIAN-OCEAN
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Physical Sciences
PRECIPITATION
Science & Technology
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
VARIABILITY
vulnerability
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
021003
Date Publish Online
2022-12-30