OBJECTIVE To examine the association of hyperglycemia, as measured by GHb, with subsequent mortality in a nationally representative sample of adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We included adults aged ≥20 years who participated in Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–1994) and had complete information, including baseline diabetes status by self-report and measured GHb (n = 19,025) and follow-up through the end of 2000 for mortality.

RESULTS In the overall population, higher levels of GHb were associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes, heart disease, and cancer. After adjustment for potential risk factors, the relative hazard (RH) for adults with GHb ≥8% compared with adults with GHb <6% was 2.59 (95% CI 1.88–3.56) for all-cause mortality, 3.38 (1.98–5.77) for heart disease mortality, and 2.64 (1.17–5.97) for cancer mortality. Among adults with diagnosed diabetes, having GHb ≥8% compared with GHb <6% was associated with higher all-cause mortality (RH 1.68, 95% CI 1.03–2.74) and heart disease mortality (2.48, 1.09–5.64), but there was no increased risk of cancer mortality by GHb category. Among adults without diagnosed diabetes, there was no significant association of all-cause, heart disease, or cancer mortality and GHb category.

CONCLUSIONS These results highlight the importance of GHb levels in mortality risk among a nationally representative sample of adults with and without diagnosed diabetes and indicate that higher levels are associated with increased mortality in adults with diabetes.

Hperglycemia has been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes for individuals with glucose values both above and below the threshold for diabetes, including increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality (1). Studies have consistently found undiagnosed diabetes to be associated with increased risk of mortality (2–4), and many studies have also shown levels of glucose that are elevated, but not enough for a diagnosis of diabetes, such as impaired fasting glucose, to be associated with increased mortality (2–4).

However, most of these studies are based on fasting or postprandial glucose (1–4), and few are based on GHb levels (3,5–8). The GHb level may be a better indicator of hyperglycemia because it provides a measure of an individual's average glucose levels for the previous 3 months. Thus, it may provide a more stable snapshot of glucose levels when used in prospective cohort studies to examine the association of subsequent risk. Currently, GHb is monitored in the treatment of diabetes, and GHb targets for prevention of complications among individuals with diabetes have been established (9). Interest in the use of GHb for the diagnosis of diabetes is increasing (10), and an international effort is underway to standardize the measurement of GHb (11). This focus of GHb in clinical care measures (12) raises important questions about the long-term predictability of GHb.

Examination of the relationship of GHb with mortality reveals several areas of uncertainty, including whether the relationship of GHb with mortality is similar among individuals with and without diabetes from both prospective cohort studies and clinical trials. A few prospective cohort studies have examined the association of GHb with risk of mortality (5–8) and shown an increased risk of mortality with increasing GHb level. Only two studies included individuals with diabetes, but these studies did not examine GHb levels by diabetes status, and none were representative of the general U.S. population.

Recently published findings from three clinical trials among adults with diabetes have added to this uncertainty. The Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial showed that lower GHb levels increased risk of mortality and did not decrease CVD events (13). Whereas the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease—Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) study showed that lowering of GHb levels was associated with a decrease in micro- and macrovascular events and deaths from CVD (14) and the Veterans Administration Diabetes Trial reported that lower GHb levels were not associated with a reduction in cardiovascular events (15). These findings have not led to any changes in glycemic control recommendations (16).

The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) is the first nationally representative survey to include a measure of GHb and has mortality status available through linkage to the National Death Index. The objective of this study was to examine the association of GHb with subsequent mortality in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults.