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  4. A Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of the CMSSM
 
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A Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of the CMSSM
File(s)
0602028v3.pdf (1.52 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
de Austri, RR
Trotta, R
Roszkowski, L
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We perform a comprehensive exploration of the Constrained MSSM parameter space employing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and a Bayesian analysis. We compute superpartner masses and other collider observables, as well as a cold dark matter abundance, and compare them with experimental data. We include uncertainties arising from theoretical approximations as well as from residual experimental errors of relevant Standard Model parameters. We delineate probability distributions of the CMSSM parameters, the collider and cosmological observables as well as a dark matter direct detection cross section. The 68% probability intervals of the CMSSM parameters are: 0.52TeV < m1/2 < 1.26TeV, m0 < 2.10TeV, −0.34TeV < A0 < 2.41TeV and 38.5 < tan β < 54.6. Generally, large fractions of high probability ranges of the superpartner masses will be probed at the LHC. For example, we find that the probability of mtilde g < 2.7TeV is 78%, of mtilde qR < 2.5TeV is 85% and of mχ1± < 0.8TeV is 65%. As regards the other observables, for example at 68% probability we find 3.5 × 10−9 < BR(Bs→μ+μ−) < 1.7 × 10−8, 1.9 × 10−10 < δaμSUSY < 9.9 × 10−10 and 1 × 10−10 pb < σSIp < 1 × 10−8 pb for direct WIMP detection. We highlight a complementarity between LHC and WIMP dark matter searches in exploring the CMSSM parameter space. We further expose a number of correlations among the observables, in particular between BR(Bs→μ+μ−) and BR(bar B→Xsγ) or σSIp. Once SUSY is discovered, this and other correlations may prove helpful in distinguishing the CMSSM from other supersymmetric models. We investigate the robustness of our results in terms of the assumed ranges of CMSSM parameters and the effect of the (g−2)μ anomaly which shows some tension with the other observables. We find that the results for m0, and the observables which strongly depend on it, are sensitive to our assumptions, while our conclusions for the other variables are robust.
Date Issued
2006-05-03
Date Acceptance
2006-04-19
Citation
Journal of High Energy Physics, 2006, 2006 (5)
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/28636
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1088/1126-6708/2006/05/002
ISSN
1126-6708
Publisher
IOP Science
Journal / Book Title
Journal of High Energy Physics
Volume
2006
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
©2006 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Physics, Particles & Fields
Physics
PHYSICS, PARTICLES & FIELDS
supersymmetry phenomenology
supersymmetric effective theories
NEUTRALINO DARK-MATTER
SUPERSYMMETRIC STANDARD MODEL
PROBE WMAP OBSERVATIONS
HUBBLE-SPACE-TELESCOPE
LARGE TAN-BETA
MINIMAL SUPERGRAVITY
POWER SPECTRUM
RELIC DENSITY
HIGGS-BOSON
COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
002
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